Pachter Predicts PlayStation 4 Will Cost $349, Xbox One $399 at Launch

June 3, 2013 Written by Sebastian Moss


Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter is best known for being completely wrong about things, but here’s what he predicts the PS4 will cost in the US at launch: $349.

In an E3 preview note to investors, Pachter estimates that the PlayStation 4’s materials will cost around $275, while the Xbox One will cost around $325 in materials (presumably, he doesn’t believe the PS4Eye will be bundled, while the Kinect 2 has been confirmed to be bundled). Because of this, he predicts the One will cost more at retail, at $399.

However, Pachter believes the One may be available subsidized, either by signing up to contracts with cable or ISP companies, or through XBL:

We believe the ability to watch live TV from a cable, telco, or satellite set-top box through Xbox One could entice an MSO to drive subscriptions through a subsidized box in exchange for a multi-year contract. The ‘always connected’ requirement for the Xbox One likely means that a broadband connection will be required, suggesting to us that ISPs may have an incentive to offer a subsidy as well.

In addition, Microsoft could conceivably subsidize the Xbox One through prepaid Xbox Live Gold subscriptions (as it has done on a limited basis in the past) or premium Skype functionality as well. Similarly, Sony could subsidize the PS4 through prepaid PlayStation Network subscriptions, but unlike Microsoft, it does not have a history of doing so.

He also predicts a $50 price cut on the PS3 and 360, the Wii coming down to $99, and a possible Vita price cut.

Meanwhile, here’s what he thought about the Wii U:

In addition, if the Wii U’s popularity does not improve by the end of the year, many third-party publishers may pass on producing games for the console. We note that EA recently announced that it had no Wii U games in development, and it remains a possibility that the publisher will abandon the platform entirely. Should other third parties follow EA’s lead, the Wii U could be relegated to a first party only platform.

We’ll find out how much will come true at E3, but what do you think? Let us know your equally wild guesses in the comments below.