Honestly, I'm on the fence. It's evident that the market seems to be changing. For the first time ever, we've seen mid-gen upgrades and I remember people laughing those off when the rumors first surfaced. I don't want to confidently dismiss the report but personally, I'm guessing we'll hear something in 2019. I want to say that there are games still pending release on the PS4 but we've seen games being delayed to coincide with new hardware launches in the past, too.
I could see it being announced towards the end of 2018 at PSX, but I really think they should wait until 2019 at the earliest.
If you count the PS4 Pro, this has been the shortest console generation for PlayStation. The idea of iterative technology is nothing new, and I wouldn't be surprised to see consoles start to approach that methodology to some extent, as we are already seeing with Pro and Scorpio.
There's an outside shot that we'll see PS5 release at the end of 2018 but I think holiday 2019 is when it'll arrive. I'm more interested to see how much of an impact Microsoft's moves of desperation this generation have on Sony's next console. Will it be backwards compatible? Will they change online store policies? Will VR remain a focus? Only time will tell.
If anything, the advent of mid-gen upgrades has really made the PS5 a tricky butterfly to pin (if it wasn't already). I'd wager that Sony won't unveil the PS5 until at least 2019 in fear of undercutting the likes of The Last of Us 2 and Death Stranding -- those titles that are on the far fringes of the PS4's current lineup.
I wouldn't be totally shocked by a 2018 release, with how iterative tech is, but I think a 2020 release would be the sweet spot. Sony will want to keep players satisfied, especially those that dropped the dough for a PS4 Pro, so I expect they'll want to get a few extra years out of the tech before moving on.
While most people think Sony will pull a surprise PS5 announcement to dampen Project Scorpio's impact, I don't think the company even needs to.
At this stage, the PS4 is leading the Xbox One by an insurmountable amount, and it's only getting bigger. In short: Sony doesn't need to combat Scorpio in power since, well, it doesn't have to.
Now for the PS5, I think it's way too early for Sony to announce it. Rumors that say it might come out in 2018? Yeah, a dream and nothing more. That said, everything can go to shit and Sony would announce it next year and release it next year, but I really doubt that.
Mind, I wouldn't mind seeing a PS5 being announced, but I doubt Sony would do anything to jeopardize the PS4's brisk sales traffic.
If I had to guess, a teaser of some sort maybe next year, with the full reveal late 2018 and the release sometime in 2019. Heck, I wouldn't be shocked to see the PS5 be released in 2020 even.
Honestly, it's way too early to be hearing about PS5, what with the PS4 Pro having just launched. Sure, Microsoft's Scorpio console seems scary, but I don't think it's going to cause Sony to abandon the PS4 this early on.
A PSX 2018 announcement is when I'm expecting to first hear something official about PS5. It can then release in 2019, giving the PS4 a couple more years.