Several analysts have predicted that Rockstar Games’ and Take-Two Interactive’s Red Dead Redemption 2 will rake in roughly $500 million over the weekend. The game, which released on Friday, October 26, received universal critical acclaim, leading Take-Two’s stock value to increase by nine percent before markets closed for the week.
Cowen analyst Doug Creutz believes that Red Dead Redemption 2 will outsell Call of Duty: Black Ops 4 in the fourth quarter. The Activision-published Treyarch title also earned $500 million during its opening weekend.
Piper Jaffray released similar estimates. According to a report published yesterday, the company’s analysts expect Red Dead Redemption 2 to sell 18-20 million units by March 2019. However, they believe that Black Ops 4 will remain slightly ahead of the Rockstar title.
Our gamer buying intent surveys over the past six months have suggested that RDR2 is the second most anticipated game of this holiday season, behind CoD: Black Ops 4, which is consistent with investor expectations for 18-20M units of RDR2 in FY19, compared to expectations for 23-24M units for Black Ops 4 in the Dec-18 quarter. Considering Activision announced that Black Ops 4 soldthrough $500-550M in its first weekend, we would expect RDR2 first weekend sales below that level. We believe reasonable RDR2 first weekend revenue is $400-500M, which would equate to approximately 6-8M units and would put the title well on its way to meeting Street FY19 expectations.
It’s likely that Rockstar will reveal official opening weekend figures sometime next week. Stay tuned.
RDR2 Sales and Revenue Estimates on Par With Black Ops 4's