Analysts are usually met with a lot of hesitation when it comes to pre-order numbers and sales, but analyst firm Cowen & Co believes they have a 96%-97% accuracy rate in the past two years, with their data coming from analysis of NPD sales data and Amazon.com best-seller info from previous years.
So, when we tell you about the pre-orders numbers they’re reporting right now – which have been tracked since E3 in June – they won’t be exact, but are accurate estimations based on available data.
Unsurprisingly Call of Duty: Ghosts is at #1, even outpacing the numbers of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 from two years ago. A little further down the list at #4, Battlefield 4 is ahead of Battlefield 3, with Watch Dogs and Grand Theft Auto V at #2 and #3, respectively. Since Cowen has only been tracking the numbers since June, and GTA V (as well as other games) has been available for pre-order for quite some time, expect actual numbers to be much higher.
Using the sales of the #1 game from last year, Call of Duty: Black Ops 2, as a measuring point for the Cowen ‘odometer’, here’s their list of the top 21 pre-ordered games right now:
- Call of Duty: Ghosts – 73.0
- Watch Dogs – 69.6
- Grand Theft Auto V – 58.4
- Battlefield 4 – 54.7
- Killzone: Shadow Fall – 30.3
- Assassin’s Creed IV: Black Flag – 29.2
- Forza 5 – 18.8
- Diablo III – 18.2
- Batman: Arkham Origins – 17.3
- Dead Rising 3 – 15.0
- Ryse – 13.2
- Saints Row IV – 10.1
- Knack – 7.7
- Gran Turismo 6 – 5.0
- Beyond: Two Souls – 3.3
- Wolfenstein: The New Order – 3.2
- DriveClub – 3.0
- Splinter Cell: Blacklist – 2.9
- The Bureau: XCOM Declassified – 0.4
- South Park: The Stick of Truth – 0.2
- Lost Planet 3 – 0.2
What do you think will end up as the best-selling game of 2013? Let us know in the comments below.