Market Analyst Questions 3D Hype

January 10, 2010 Written by Kyle P.

With this year’s Consumer Electronics Show still in full force, the gaming and movie world has literally been focusing on 3D and the potential it brings. Sony has been leading this drive, saying that they will use the PlayStation 3 as the flagship electronic to push this new technology. However, according to James McQuivey VP and analyst at Forrester Research, 3D is just hype right now, and it will certainly take a long time for it to be market accepted.

According to McQuivey, just like HDTVs, 3D will take just as long to become price-friendly, and consequently, consumer-friendly.

“If it took 10 years for HD to go from one home to reach more than half the US population, it will take 3D just as long. Which is an easy bet to make. The real trick is figuring out how long we languish in the low-single-digit millions.

“First more 3D content has to be created—that means new (expensive) cameras, new satellite uplink infrastructure for live sporting events, and an entirely new cable infrastructure to consume more bandwidth to deliver Full HD 3D content (where each eye sees a unique 1080p 3D image).

“And if you think consumers are reeling from the effects of a down economy, you don’t want to sit in that meeting where you explain to a fatigued cable network or cable operator that after just completing a massive transition to HD, they now have to go 3DHD. Ouch.”

McQuivey went on to say that:

“Gaming is the ideal environment for 3D—gameheads stare straight at the screen in immersive gameplay for hours. That’s why gaming will lead in 3D.”

McQuivey’s comments certainly are interesting, as this wave of 3D hype certainly feels unjustified. The technology is quite expensive, and requires people to buy new TVs after many have recently bought non-3D HDTVs. What are your feelings on this issue? Post your thoughts and feelings in the comments section below.